结直肠腺瘤相关危险因素分析及预测模型构建

虞晨燕; 朱锦舟; 刘晓琳; 奚黎婷; 杨奕; 吴爱荣

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1671-038X.2021.07.13

结直肠腺瘤相关危险因素分析及预测模型构建

- 苏州大学附属第一医院消化内科(江苏苏州, 215000)

详细信息

通讯作者: 吴爱荣,E-mail:arwu@suda.edu.cn

中图分类号: R735.3

收稿日期: 2021-02-19

Analysis of risk factors associated with colorectal adenoma and construction of prediction model

- Department of Gastroenterology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou, 215000, China

More Information

Corresponding author: WU Airong, E-mail: arwu@suda.edu.cn

Received Date: 19 February 2021

摘要

摘要: 目的：探讨结直肠腺瘤发生的危险因素，建立结直肠腺瘤的预测模型。方法：回顾性分析2014年9月-2019年9月进行肠镜检查的符合入组标准的1339例结直肠腺瘤患者、807例非结直肠腺瘤者的临床资料。比较2组患者性别、年龄、BMI、血常规、生化指标、肿瘤指标的差异，采用Logistic回归分析探究结直肠腺瘤的危险因素，并建立预测模型。结果：单因素分析显示，年龄、总胆固醇、高密度脂蛋白、低密度脂蛋白、红细胞计数、癌胚抗原与结直肠腺瘤的发生相关（均P<0.05）。多因素Logistic回归分析提示，年龄、总胆固醇、高密度脂蛋白、红细胞计数、癌胚抗原与结直肠腺瘤的发生相关（均P<0.05）。基于上述相关变量构建的预测模型ROC曲线下面积为0.680（95%CI 0.656~0.703），对应的灵敏度和特异度分别为45.4%、76.0%。结论：基于年龄、红细胞计数、总胆固醇、高密度脂蛋白、癌胚抗原的模型可预测结直肠腺瘤的发生。
- 结直肠腺瘤 /
- 高密度脂蛋白 /
- 胆固醇 /
- 红细胞 /
- 癌胚抗原 /
- 预测模型
Abstract: Objective: To explore the risk factors of colorectal adenoma and establish a prediction model for colorectal adenoma. Methods: The clinical data of 1339 patients with adenoma and 807 healthy controls who underwent colonoscopy in our hospital from September 2014 to September 2019 were retrospectively analyzed. The differences in gender, age, body mass index, blood routine, biochemical and tumor indicators between the two groups were identified. The risk factors of colorectal adenoma were explored by Logistic regression analysis and a prediction model was established. Results: Univariate analysis showed that age, total cholesterol, high density lipoprotein-cholesterol, low density lipoprotein-cholesterol, red blood cell count and carcinoembryonic antigen were associated with the occurrence of colorectal adenoma(P<0.05). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that age, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, red blood cell count and carcinoembryonic antigen were related to the occurrence of colorectal adenoma(P<0.05). The prediction model for colorectal adenoma was established based on above five factors, and its area under the receiver operating characteristic was 0.680(95%CI 0.656-0.703), with the sensitivity of 45.4% and specificity of 76.0%. Conclusion: The model based on age, red blood cell count, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol and carcinoembryonic antigen showed a good performance for the prediction of colorectal adenoma.
- colorectal adenoma /
- high-density lipoprotein /
- cholesterol /
- red blood cell /
- carcinoembryonic antigen /
- prediction model

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