乙肝肝硬化并自发性细菌性腹膜炎预后因素分析及预后模型建立

刘密霞; 李建国; 孔鹏北; 王文娟; 柴艳云; 金磊

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1671-038X.2017.11.07

乙肝肝硬化并自发性细菌性腹膜炎预后因素分析及预后模型建立

- 山西晋城煤业集团总医院感染病科, 山西晋城 048006

详细信息

作者简介:
刘密霞,长期从事肝病的工作及研究

通讯作者: 刘密霞,E-mail:373855694@qq.com

中图分类号: R572

收稿日期: 2017-05-10

Prognostic factors analysis and prognostic model establishment of patients with Hepatitis B cirrhosis complicated with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis

- Department of Infectious Diseases, Jincheng General Hospital, Jincheng 048006, China

More Information

Corresponding author: LIU Mi-xia, E-mail: 373855694@qq.com

Received Date: 10 May 2017

摘要

摘要: [目的]探讨乙肝肝硬化并自发性细菌性腹膜炎(SBP)预后因素并建立预后模型。[方法]采用回顾性病例对照研究,收集2000年1月1日~2013年12月31日我院住院的乙肝肝硬化并SBP患者87例为研究对象,据治疗2周时疗效分为好转组和无效死亡组,2组患者比较一般情况、Child-pugh分级、血清化验指标及并发症,采用单因素分析(χ²/t/Z检验)和多因素分析(Logistic回归)对患者进行比较,得出影响SBP预后因素,采用偏最大似然估计前进法建立预后模型,用之预判治疗2周时患者无效死亡的概率及评估死亡风险。[结果]影响SBP的独立危险因素是Child-pugh分级C级、并休克血症、低钠血症。血清钠离子是影响SBP预后的保护因素。应用模型预判治疗2周时患者无效死亡的概率。[结论]应用影响SBP的独立危险因素和预后模型,为临床进行SBP病情评估、合理治疗提供参考。
- 乙肝肝硬化 /
- 自发性细菌性腹膜炎 /
- 预后因素 /
- 预后模型
Abstract: [Objective]To investigate the prognostic factors of hepatitis B cirrhosis complicated with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis(SBP)and to establish a prognostic model.[Methods]87 cases of hepatitis B cirrhosis patients with SBP from January 1,2000 to December 31,2013,Jincheng coal group general hospital were divided into 2 groups,including improved group and ineffective death group.General station of health,Child-pugh grade,serum biochemical index and complications were analyzed by single factor analysis(χ²/t/Z test)and multivariate analysis(Logistic regression)in two groups.The established prognostic model by partial maximum likelihood estimation method could be used to predict the death probability after 2 weeks of treatment.[Results]The independent risk factors of SBP were Child-pugh grade C,shock and hyponatremia.Moreover,serum sodium is a protective factor.And this prognostic Logistic were used to judgment death probability.[Conclusion]The independent risk factors and prognosis models of SBP were used in the clinical evaluation and reasonable treatment of SBP.
- Hepatitis B Cirrhosis /
- spontaneous nacterial peritonitis /
- prognostic factors /
- prognostic model

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